PolyWise Research

Adoption Telemetry

Measuring enterprise AI adoption from production signals

Your dashboards tell you who touched the tool. They cannot tell you whose work changed. Adoption telemetry closes that gap — computing change-management stage progression directly from the usage signals your AI deployment already produces, and mapping every stall to a class of intervention.

Damon A. Young · PolyWise Partners · August 2026 · 23 pages · CC-BY 4.0 · DOI 10.5281/zenodo.21943955 · arXiv version forthcoming
Why it matters

Everyone deployed AI. Almost nobody’s work changed.

95%

of generative-AI pilots show no measurable P&L impact.

MIT NANDA, State of AI in Business 2025
17→42%

of companies abandoning most of their AI initiatives — a jump of one year.

S&P Global Market Intelligence, n=1,006
~2%

of AI users reach the stage where AI is consistently embedded in their workflows.

ActivTrak Productivity Lab, 120,000+ workers

The reported causes of failure are organizational — workflow, sponsorship, behavior — not model capability. The diagnosis is settled. What’s been missing is an instrument.

The framework

NANTE™ — five stages, each a computable predicate

NANTE classifies a deployment population — never individuals — into five stages of behavior change, computed deterministically from telemetry an enterprise already generates. Thresholds are published, falsifiable, and open to dispute.

1

Notice

Do they know it exists?
Provisioned, no activity
2

Attempt

Have they tried it?
First invocation
3

Navigate

Is use recurring?
Active 3+ distinct weeks
4

Transform

Has work changed?
Multi-step share & success gates
5

Embed

Would withdrawal hurt?
Sustained near-continuous use
Breadth — do people arrive?
Depth — does work change?

nante (Twi): “walk” — as in nante yiye, walk well. The model measures a population’s walk through a change.

What it sees

The same usage data. Opposite adoption.

Two cohorts a usage dashboard calls identical — over 98% of both reach recurring use. One is integrating the tool into how work gets done; one has stalled at the surface. NANTE separates them.

Healthy (reference) — 25.1% reach depth Shallow plateau (stalled) — 0% past Navigate
Notice 0.0% 0.0% Attempt 1.2% 0.6% Navigate 73.7% 99.4% Transform 7.2% 0.0% Embed 18.0% 0.0% THE WALL

Healthy: 25.1% reach depth (Transform + Embed) · composite 60.5 · no stall flag.  Stalled: 0% past Navigate · composite 49.9 · shallow-plateau flag → workflow redesign, not more licenses. Figures are the reference and shallow-plateau cohorts from the paper’s evaluation (synthetic populations; reproducible via make results).

The paper

Three contributions — and an honest boundary

A named category

Adoption telemetry: continuous measurement of behavior change from production signals, interpreted through an explicit model of change — distinct from evals, usage analytics, product analytics, and survey-based change management.

A concrete instrument

NANTE: five stages, six diagnosable patterns (one healthy, five failure modes), defined thresholds, and a stall-to-intervention map — so measurement ends in action, not a score.

An open implementation

agent-adoption-kit (Apache-2.0): a local pipeline over your own exports. Every table and figure in the paper regenerates from the published code. Raw events never leave your environment.

What the evidence does — and doesn’t — show.

The evaluation demonstrates computability and discrimination on synthetic populations. Every threshold is a proposed default, not a calibrated value; validating stages against real outcomes is the paper’s stated research agenda — and the reason the design-partner program below exists.

Design-partner program

Help calibrate the instrument — on your own deployment

The framework’s next step requires what no synthetic population can supply: production deployments with observed outcomes. PolyWise is convening a small group of organizations running enterprise AI at cohort scale (50+ seats) to validate and calibrate NANTE against reality.

  • Run the kit locally on your own telemetry — raw events never leave your environment
  • Receive your cohort’s stage distributions, stall diagnoses, and intervention mapping
  • Shape the calibrated baselines the whole field will use — and get them first

Participation is scoped, confidential, and cohort-level only — NANTE never scores individuals.

Cite this work

Citation

Young, D. A. (2026). Adoption Telemetry: Measuring Enterprise AI Adoption from Production Signals. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21943955

@article{young2026adoption,
  author    = {Young, Damon A.},
  title     = {Adoption Telemetry: Measuring Enterprise AI Adoption
               from Production Signals},
  year      = {2026},
  publisher = {Zenodo},
  doi       = {10.5281/zenodo.21943955},
  url       = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21943955}
}